SPC AC 230738

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across
   portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on
   Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong
   tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail.

   ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks...

   A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on
   Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much
   of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected.

   An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over
   the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will
   increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast
   along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a
   warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly
   low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over
   the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast
   NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The
   warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight.
   Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from
   west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in
   the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across
   the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel
   lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to
   extreme destabilization.

   By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline
   and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit
   uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected.
   Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly
   winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support
   supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and
   intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very
   large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from
   near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. 

   It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will
   develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection
   spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado
   potential will accompany this activity.

   ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia...

   Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on
   Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting
   diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and
   effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will
   support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts.

   ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

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