SPC AC 040729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will
   be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

   ...Central and Southern Plains...
   An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday
   morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The
   associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90
   to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the
   trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and
   central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist
   axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and
   40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in
   place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms
   developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This
   convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the
   early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. 

   As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central
   Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to
   70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with
   strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support
   the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited
   moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat
   marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.
   Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection
   moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks.

   ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024

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