SPC AC 070554

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across
   parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern
   Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of
   hail may also occur in southwestern Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander
   eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags
   southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday).
   Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist
   across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday),
   Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a
   hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland.
   Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl
   are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging
   with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are
   possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the
   Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate
   moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to
   severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern
   TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise,
   isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front
   across southwestern TX.

   ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR...
   At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular
   hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F
   surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area,
   into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl
   will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric
   cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the
   mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts
   considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical
   wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2
   effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over
   1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete
   storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are
   possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across
   eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms
   may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where
   vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR
   into southeast MO.

   ...Southwestern TX...
   By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop
   along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos
   region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep,
   mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are
   expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km
   coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an
   isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before
   diminishing after sunset.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024

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