SPC AC 050553

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into
   the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage
   expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater
   than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the
   exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move
   into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high
   pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower
   Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture
   will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the
   vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some
   disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for
   thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther
   east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary.

   ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas...
   Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon.
   Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold
   temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly
   mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote
   some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+
   inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale
   growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind
   gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is
   some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for
   potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that
   this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level
   moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and
   the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are
   possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain
   quite low at this time.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the
   southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe
   storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is
   possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening
   in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some
   uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear
   will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates
   will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the
   strongest storms.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   A weak cold front will move through the region during the
   afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass
   will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be
   displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights
   will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather
   weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm
   coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a
   strong storm or two remains possible.

   ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024

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