SPC AC 241743

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of
   widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and
   southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners
   states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface
   low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest
   TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across
   OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z.

   South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will
   develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper
   southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day,
   accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline
   will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into
   western OK/northwest TX.

   The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear
   across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly
   strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail.

   ...Central and Southern Plains...
   Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops.
   Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late
   afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with
   the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across
   western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and
   surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening
   southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should
   easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail
   is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived
   supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked
   and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet
   increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and
   unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected
   with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind
   speeds.

   With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly
   with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern
   KS and far western MO late.

   Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector
   across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than
   points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells
   capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible
   with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across
   western and central OK and pars of northern TX.

   Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline,
   mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level
   confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the
   dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the
   ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late
   initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into
   central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is
   precluding a High Risk at this time.

   Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into
   central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for
   late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado.

   ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024

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