SPC AC 271933

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the
   northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very
   large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
   possible.

   ...Eastern Carolinas/GA...

   The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed from central GA
   and portions of the Carolinas based on latest observations/ongoing
   convection and the location of the surface trough. Sporadic strong
   gusts remain possible into early evening.

   ...Northern/Central Plains...

   The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of
   southwest/west-central MT based on the current location of the upper
   trough and convection developing over the higher terrain shifting
   eastward. Meanwhile, the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk has been
   trimmed across a small part of northern ND. Persistent cloud cover
   has limited heating/destabilization across this area, and surface
   dewpoints are lower, in the upper 50s to near 60 F.  Current cloud
   cover is not expected to lift north/east very quickly. A
   differential heating boundary across western ND will likely serve as
   an effective warm front, with convection moving east of this
   boundary during the evening gradually weakening with time across
   central ND. 

   Otherwise, overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the
   previous outlook, and no changes have been made to the outlook
   across the central/southern Plains vicinity. See prior discussion
   below, or reference MCD 1445 and severe thunderstorm watch 473 for
   more information.

   ...Eastern Great Basin...

   No changes have been made to the outlook across this region. See
   previous discussion below, or reference MCD 1446 and severe
   thunderstorm watch 474 for more information.

   ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/

   ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin...
   Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough
   rotating across the northwest states.  This feature will result in
   strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and
   northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing
   for ascent.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the
   higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early
   afternoon.  Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear
   through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and
   occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind
   gusts.

   ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas...
   As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms
   will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting
   supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a
   few tornadoes.  These storms will progress eastward through the
   afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing
   structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds.

   ...Central Plains...
   Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should
   be less.  However, convection will intensify as outflows from the
   High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination
   of bowing and supercell storms expected.  Damaging winds are
   probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer
   shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region
   as well.

   ...Carolinas/GA...
   A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from
   central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA.  Scattered mid and
   high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating.  But a few
   strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts
   capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

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