Detroit, MI...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...Colorado Springs, CO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
17,583
32,073
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Detroit, MI...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...Colorado Springs, CO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
33,558
142,938
Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...
5 %
333,758
34,020,914
Detroit, MI...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 210040
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts are expected this evening across southern
New England. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of
the north-central High Plains.
...01z Update...
A southward-propagating MCS has evolved over southern New England,
along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies. This activity
developed well ahead of the main cold front, along a prefrontal
low-level confluence zone, and is advancing steadily south across MA
at this time. Surface temperatures remain quite warm across this
region with readings holding in the 80s to near 90F. It appears
adequate buoyancy is holding across interior southern New England
such that this complex should move of the coast with an attendant
risk for locally damaging winds.
Weak mid-level disturbance is shifting east across the central High
Plains this evening. A substantial complex of storms has evolved
ahead of this feature, extending from northeast CO-NE
Panhandle-south-central SD. While this activity has produced very
large hail earlier in its convective cycle, a bowing squall line has
emerged over Cherry County NE, and this portion of the MCS may
generate severe winds as it surges east within a focused
warm-advection zone. LLJ will increase markedly across the central
Plains over the next few hours, supporting forward propagation
toward southeast SD late this evening.
..Darrow.. 06/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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