SPC AC 140548

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central
   and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging
   gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms
   will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central
   Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a
   second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today.
   Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast
   mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple
   rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms
   over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level
   trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid
   in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated
   buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate
   buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong
   to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more
   concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual
   baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High
   Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered
   thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an
   isolated severe threat.

   ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA...
   A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern
   FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this
   boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak
   overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will
   boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph
   curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing
   structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging
   gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by
   the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe
   thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level
   impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe
   coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional
   on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of
   storms.

   ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont...
   Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering
   surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal
   heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s
   F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid
   60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon.
   Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved
   and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and
   multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main
   threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 

   ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains...
   The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal
   heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to
   numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A
   deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon
   peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms
   capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and
   mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also
   accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level
   moisture is slightly more favorable.

   ...Portions of western Texas...
   A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a
   diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the
   dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation
   of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will
   be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F
   dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that
   develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest
   that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection,
   accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024

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