SPC AC 100557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL
   AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC
   INTO SOUTHEAST NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible
   today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe
   storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible
   across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS
   today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move
   southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an
   upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move
   across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of
   extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward
   across parts of the Southeast and Texas. 

   ...Parts of GA/north FL...
   An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
   across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable
   moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some
   uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this
   system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive
   convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is
   possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support
   potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves
   offshore.  

   Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS,
   some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front
   during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL
   Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for
   organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be
   possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.  

   ...Parts of the Carolinas...
   With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly
   offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a
   corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in
   advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough
   approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development
   along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting
   storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing
   segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts
   and hail. 

   ...South-central TX...
   A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to
   slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight.
   Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the
   day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but
   elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two
   with isolated hail as the primary threat. 

   ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley...
   Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this
   afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving
   southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due
   to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level
   lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the
   strongest convection.

   ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024

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