SPC AC 022005

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST TX...

   CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
   into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.
    The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into
   central Texas.

   ...20Z Update...
   The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts
   of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf
   Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast
   LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining
   severe threat is expected to be isolated. 

   Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas.
   The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into
   IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor
   and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. 

   Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected
   near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and
   possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for
   more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information
   regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley.

   ..Dean.. 05/02/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/

   ...TX...
   Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across
   the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending
   southward across west TX.  Ample low-level moisture is present to
   the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon
   heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE
   values around 4000 J/kg.  Deep layer flow is not particularly
   strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the
   setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of
   very large hail and damaging winds.  Have upped hail probabilities
   in parts of this region.  The cluster of storms may grow upscale
   after dark, building southeastward into central TX.

   ...OK into Western Great Lakes...
   A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA.  A large shield of
   prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and
   eastern IA.  Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of
   strong heating will occur this afternoon.  Most CAM solutions
   suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this
   differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells
   capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Confidence in a more
   organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this
   time.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z