SPC AC 241949

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this
   afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains.

   ...20Z Update...

   ...Western/Southern KS into Central OK...
   19Z surface analysis places a low over southeast CO and another low
   farther northeast over the western KS/NE border vicinity. A dryline
   extends southward from this northern low through western KS, central
   TX Panhandle, TX South Plains, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorms have
   initiated along this dryline from southwest KS into the TX South
   Plains, within a narrow axis of modest buoyancy. These storms are
   expected to persist and deepen as they move eastward/northeastward,
   with large hail still anticipated to be the primary severe risk.
   Highest storm coverage is still forecast for parts of northwest OK
   and south-central KS later this afternoon/early evening.
   Additionally, as mentioned in recently issued MCD #292, cooler
   temperatures aloft and resultant greater buoyancy coupled with a
   wider warm sector could sustain a supercell or two over southwest
   KS, with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area.

   ...South-Central OK into TX Hill Country..
   Guidance remains consistent in forecasting thunderstorm development
   along the Pacific front from south-central OK into central TX/TX
   Hill Country tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear
   suggest the potential for organized storms. Large hail is possible
   with the initial, more cellular development with a trend towards a
   more linear mode and damaging gusts anticipated thereafter.

   ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/

   ...Southern KS into Western OK...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper
   trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern
   Plains.  Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is
   occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level
   winds throughout much of the southern Plains.  Strong heating in the
   High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the
   eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to form.  This will be on the nose of a
   70-80 kt mid-level jet max.  The synoptic setup, vertical shear
   profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe
   storms today.  The major limiting factor for a more significant
   outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the
   low-mid 50s).  This will likely limit the number of storms that
   form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker
   updrafts.  Nevertheless, those storms that can become established
   should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a
   risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  Have added
   a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z
   guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage.

   ...Northwest KS...
   Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front
   will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this
   afternoon.  While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3
   hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger
   cells.

   ...West-central to North TX...
   It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon
   over west-central TX.  CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most
   models show only one or two storms.  Any activity that does form
   would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds.  After dark, a
   more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific
   cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area.  Forecast
   soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and
   damaging winds into the overnight hours.

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