SPC AC 121615

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

   Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
   this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and
   the Carolinas.

   ...Southeast through tonight...
   The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to
   turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the
   OH Valley this afternoon.  An associated surface cyclone will
   deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold
   front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA.  It appears the main height
   falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from
   the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern
   MS/southwest AL.  

   There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with
   boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through
   the afternoon.  However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the
   presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse
   rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector
   convection this afternoon.  A conditional threat for wind damage and
   a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical
   shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along
   the north edge of the surface warm sector is low.
   Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today
   into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge.  

   A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface
   cold front across the Carolinas into tonight.  Very strong vertical
   shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some
   potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the
   line.  Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent
   (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the
   Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest
   uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat.

   ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z