SPC AC 280728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and
   sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central into the
   northern Plains vicinity on Tuesday.

   ...Central to Northern Plains vicinity...

   An upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies/High Plains
   vicinity will result in modest northwesterly mid/upper flow from NE
   southward into OK/TX on Tuesday. Several midlevel vorticity maxima
   are forecast to migrate through this northwesterly flow across parts
   of the central Plains. Upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and
   strong heating will support moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE) from eastern CO into KS, southward into the TX
   Panhandle/northwest OK. Vertical shear will remain modest. However,
   steep low-level lapse rates and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer
   could support strong downdrafts capable of isolated strong/severe
   gusts gusts. Some potential for forward propagating clusters is
   possible toward evening as a low-level jet modestly increases and
   some better organized structures may develop via storm
   interactions/consolidating outflows.

   Further north, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas
   vicinity will weaken and lift northeast through the day. Vertical
   shear will remain weak, but 60s F surface dewpoints amid strong
   heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate
   instability. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
   strong gusts and hail (in any longer lived updrafts) will be
   possible during the afternoon/early evening.

   ..Leitman.. 05/28/2023

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