SPC AC 290736

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potentially intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected
   Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the
   Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the
   Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will
   be the main hazards with this activity.

   ...Arklatex to the Mid-MS Valley and eastward to the OH/TN
   Valleys...

   Widespread, regional episode of severe thunderstorms is possible on
   Friday.

   An intense mid/upper trough is forecast to eject eastward across the
   Plains to the central U.S. on Friday. Intense deep-layer
   southwesterly flow will accompany this system, with a 100+ kt 500 mb
   jet expanding over much of the Midwest. As the upper trough deepens
   during the afternoon and evening, a 60-70 kt southwesterly low-level
   jet will overspread much of the risk area. These flow fields will
   favor a fast-moving squall line shifting across the Mid-MS
   Valley/Mid-South toward the Lower OH and TN Valleys. 

   At the surface, strong southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
   dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north
   as eastern IA to northern IL and then central IN as the surface low
   tracks east/northeast from IA early in the day, to southern Ontario
   by Saturday morning. While some questions remain regarding moisture
   with north and east extent into the OH Valley, forecast soundings
   indicate at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE will exist during the
   evening as far east as the I-65 corridor in KY/TN. Given intense
   flow fields, a threat for damaging gusts will persist from MO/IA
   into the Lower OH Valley.

   Across IA/MO, initial supercell development is possible near the
   surface low/triple point. Fast moving storms may produce possibly
   significant damaging gusts and tornadoes. Upscale growth into a QLCS
   is expected to occur rapidly given strong forcing/vertical shear.

   Further south into the Mid-South and vicinity, large-scale ascent
   will be somewhat weaker further removed from the upper trough.
   However, flow fields will remain intense and a mixed mode of
   supercells and linear convection is expected. All severe hazards
   (damaging gusts, tornadoes and isolated hail) are expected by late
   afternoon into the evening hours.

   ..Leitman.. 03/29/2023

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