Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201638
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper low will move into central CA with a strong
cyclonically-curved midlevel jet nosing into AZ and UT by 12Z
Wednesday. Generally zonal flow conditions will prevail across the
central and eastern states with high pressure over the East. Cold
air aloft across the West will lead to areas of daytime
thunderstorms from central and southern CA into the Great Basin.
Weak instability is expected to preclude any severe storm threat.
While the primary surface low will affect central CA and NV, a
secondary low will develop over KS, with increasing low-level
moisture return occurring from TX into OK. A leading/weaker wave and
associated low-level jet will aid scattered elevated thunderstorms
mainly from eastern KS into MO, but instability will be too weak for
severe storms. Otherwise, the remainder of the warm sector across
the southern Plains is to remain stable due to temporary warming
aloft.
..Jewell.. 03/20/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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