Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 260659
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging winds will be possible on
Monday across parts of the lower Ohio Valley.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move quickly
east-northeastward across the southern Plains tonight and into the
lower Ohio Valley on Monday. Early in the period, a cold front in
the mid Mississippi Valley, along with a preceding tongue of
maximized low-level moisture, will surge eastward. Thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the
Mississippi River from far southeast Iowa southward into far eastern
Missouri. This convection will move quickly eastward across the Ohio
Valley early in the day, approaching the Appalachian foothills
during the afternoon.
A focused 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will quickly translate
eastward across the lower Ohio Valley Monday morning. This speed max
will influence winds near the surface. NAM forecast soundings
between 12Z and 18Z between Lincoln, Illinois and Cincinnati, Ohio
suggest SBCAPE will peak near 500 J/kg. Winds right above the
surface are forecast in the 40 to 50 knot range. Convection should
be able to drive these strong winds to the surface, resulting in an
isolated wind-damage threat. The greatest threat should exist along
the leading edge of any line segment that can remain intact during
the morning, before the upper-level trough outruns the moist axis.
Although there is some conditionality with this forecast, the
potential for a cluster of wind reports appears substantial enough
to continue a small and focused slight risk. The slight risk is
concentrated where the low-level jet and greatest convective
potential is forecast to become juxtaposed Monday morning.
..Broyles.. 02/26/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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