Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 191614
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over the San Joaquin Valley
and western Mojave Desert vicinity this afternoon.
...San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave Desert...
Hot temperatures will persist over the Central Valley this afternoon
with abundant insolation underway northwest of the extensive cloud
canopy downstream of Hurricane Hilary. Convective temperatures will
be breached towards early afternoon over the higher terrain across
parts of the Transverse Ranges and southern Sierra NV mountains.
Isolated to eventually scattered thunderstorms will occur through
the afternoon, spreading north-northwest amid south to southeast
steering flow that notably strengthens with height in the upper
portion of the buoyancy profile. Deeply mixed, inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles beneath the moderate storm motions should
support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts before waning during
the early evening.
...West...
Elsewhere in the West, very localized severe wind gusts will be
possible with several areas of scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. Spatial coverage of the severe wind threat appears likely
to remain below the 5 percent threshold needed for an areal
delineation.
..Grams/Moore.. 08/19/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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