Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
La Crosse, WI...Wausau, WI...Mason City, IA...Winona, MN...Marquette, MI...
SPC AC 161609
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western
Upper Michigan.
...MN/WI/Western Upper MI...
Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging
southeastward across ND. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the
front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion,
have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of
MN. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. The cap will likely
focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly
behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused
convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected. Damaging
winds and hail appear to be the main threats. Storms will likely
persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of
northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening.
...southern GA/SC/FL...
A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of
a cold front sagging into the southeast states. Winds aloft and
large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be
relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates
and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging
wind gusts in the stronger cells.
..Hart/Bentley.. 08/16/2023
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