SPC AC 091956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
   of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible late this afternoon
   into early tonight, mainly from southeast Colorado into southwest
   Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

   ...20Z Update...
   The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward in the Raton
   Mesa vicinity, where convection is increasing within a modestly
   unstable and sheared environment. Also, the 5% hail has been
   expanded into central NE, where severe hail was noted earlier this
   afternoon, and MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg may continue to
   support isolated hail with the strongest storms. 

   Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See MCD 958 for more
   information regarding the short-term threat in the central Plains.
   Also see the previous discussion below for more details.

   ..Dean.. 06/09/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/

   ...Eastern CO/western KS to west TX through tonight...
   Embedded speed maxima within the southern stream will eject
   east-northeastward from NM toward the southern High Plains through
   tonight.  This will support continued weak lee troughing across the
   southern High Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to mix
   into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon immediately east of the
   trough/dryline.

   Thunderstorm initiation appears more probable along the east slopes
   of the higher terrain in southeast CO by early-mid afternoon, and
   convection will spread eastward toward southwest KS/OK
   Panhandle/northern TX Panhandle through early tonight.  Deep-layer
   vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30
   kt with relatively straight hodographs), but MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg
   and DCAPE > 1200 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates will favor
   occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat late this
   afternoon into early tonight.  The degree of storm cluster
   organization is somewhat in question, but the threat for severe
   gusts appears to be high enough to warrant a Slight risk area.  

   Farther south, a few storms should form this afternoon near the high
   terrain in southwest TX, and storms will subsequently spread
   eastward this evening.  Deep mixing will support high-based storms
   capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. 
   Thunderstorm development is less certain along the arcing dryline
   from west central TX into the TX Panhandle.  If storms form, there
   will be a conditional threat for damaging gusts and some hail.  

   ...FL this afternoon...
   A weak midlevel trough will move eastward over the northeast Gulf of
   Mexico, while a surface front stalls near the FL/GA border.  Strong
   surface heating is underway across FL, and thunderstorm development
   is expected by early-mid afternoon along the front across north FL
   and along sea breeze boundaries.  Weak low-midlevel,
   west/southwesterly flow profiles will favor the Atlantic coast sea
   breeze for primary storm development, with multicell clusters the
   main storm mode.  Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and
   DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow
   gusts with downbursts.

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