SPC AC 022000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to
   northeast Texas this afternoon through about midnight CDT. Very
   large hail and several tornadoes are possible, a couple of which may
   be strong.

   ...20Z Update...
   Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity
   across parts of western north TX this afternoon as a shortwave
   trough ejects eastward over the southern Plains. Current
   expectations are for supercells to develop from both the ongoing
   activity, and with additional development this afternoon along an
   eastward-mixing dryline. Large to very large hail will be a concern
   with any supercell that can be sustained, as steep mid-level lapse
   rates and strong effective bulk shear foster robust updrafts and
   hail growth. A strong tornado also remains a possibility,
   particularly this evening across parts of north-central TX. As
   convection eventually grows upscale this evening, the damaging wind
   threat should likewise gradually increase. For more details on the
   near-term severe threat across central/north TX and southern OK, see
   Mesoscale Discussion 437 and recently issued Tornado Watch 110.

   Otherwise, the Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly eastward
   across parts of southern/central MS for late tonight into early
   Monday morning, where an isolated hail/wind threat may persist.

   ..Gleason.. 04/02/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023/

   ...TX/OK/LA...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined and compact midlevel
   shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across NM/Southwest TX. 
   This trough and its associated 60-70kt midlevel jet will track
   across TX this afternoon and evening, providing large scale ascent
   for a round of intense thunderstorms.  Low-level moisture is
   returning northward quickly this morning, with dewpoints in the 60s
   expected as far north as the Red River.  A combination of relatively
   strong surface heating, very steep midlevel lapse rates, and rapid
   cooling of midlevel temperatures will yield a corridor of afternoon
   MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg along and east of the dryline.  

   Current indications are that thunderstorms will form quickly by
   mid-afternoon along and east of the dryline over western North Texas
   and southwest OK as the upper trough arrives.  These storms will
   likely intensify rapidly into supercells with a risk of very large
   hail and a tornado or two.  This activity will increase in coverage
   as it spreads eastward along the northern edge of rapid moisture
   return toward the DFW metro area.  Very large hail will remain a
   concern, but most model guidance also shows strengthening low-level
   wind fields and shear, promoting an increasing risk of tornadoes and
   damaging wind gusts.  A strong tornado or two will be possible.

   By mid-evening, activity will likely congeal into an MCS tracking
   eastward into northeast TX and northwest LA.  Damaging wind risk
   will increase, while the risk of hail and a tornado or two persists.
    There is uncertainty how far east this MCS will maintain a severe
   risk.  Will not adjust the outlook areas at this time, but will
   re-evaluate the need for SLGT farther east in later updates.

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