Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 281626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and some hail are expected through the
afternoon across portions of the Southeast.
...Coastal Southeast...
A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms, seemingly aided by an
MCV, are ongoing across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle
into far southwest Georgia as of midday. Preceding cloud breaks are
noted across northern Florida into southern Georgia coincident with
upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Further destabilization
(upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be conducive for an uptick
in convective intensity this afternoon, with some measure of storm
organization with aid of 40+ kt effective shear. Some of the storms
may produce isolated damaging winds and possibly some hail as they
spread east-southeastward this afternoon. Storms should shift
offshore and/or weaken by around sunset.
...Deep South Texas...
Severe potential should continue to diminish and remain low owing to
the influx of cooler/drier post-frontal air.
..Guyer/Moore.. 03/28/2023
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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