SPC AC 021914

   Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
   ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...

   AMENDED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT.

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday into Friday
   night across portions of the southern and central Plains into
   portions of the ArklaTex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few
   tornadoes will be possible.

   ...19z Update...
   Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
   eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
   the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
   robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
   destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
   The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
   uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
   numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
   portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
   is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
   cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
   Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
   hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
   QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
   conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
   with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
   However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
   supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
   significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
   has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
   morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
   severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

   ---Previous Discussion 0723Z---

   ...Southern/Central Plains and Vicinity...

   Some forecast guidance has trended faster/more progressive with the
   northeastward ejection of a large-scale upper trough oriented from
   the northern Plains to the southern Rockies Friday morning. This
   trough will lift northeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley by
   Saturday morning, with a band of strong southwesterly deep-layer
   flow overspreading the region.

   Convection is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   along a cold front oriented from the Upper MS Valley to central KS
   and northwest TX. A 40-55 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet will
   support continued strong warm advection ahead of the front. Mid to
   upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected as far north as
   northeast OK, diminishing with northeast extent into the Upper
   Midwest. Upper 60s to near 70 F boundary-layer dewpoints are
   expected across parts of southern/central and eastern TX. This
   seasonably moist air mass amid strong vertical shear will support
   organized severe thunderstorms near the eastward surging surface
   front.

   Strong to severe storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the
   period from central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Severe
   potential will increase markedly with eastward extent, especially
   across TX where stronger thermodynamics will align with favorable
   shear. A linear storm mode appears most likely at this time, but a
   few semi-discrete supercells also will be possible ahead of the
   front across the warm sector. All severe hazards appear possible,
   though damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be the main concerns
   through Friday night. The eastward extent of the severe threat is a
   bit uncertain given differences in timing of the front and how far
   east modest destabilization occurs. Some eastward adjustment to the
   Slight and Marginal risk areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons/Jewell.. 11/02/2022

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