SPC AC 140720

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
   YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to locally severe storms are expected Monday from eastern New
   York/western New England southward into the Southeast.  Locally
   damaging winds and some hail will be the primary severe risks,
   though a tornado is also possible during the afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A rather vigorous upper trough is forecast to sweep across the
   eastern U.S. Monday, along with a belt of strong cyclonic mid-level
   westerlies.  Meanwhile upstream, a rather broad ridge will affect
   much of the western and central CONUS.

   At the surface, a cold front -- lying west of the Appalachians at
   the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward, cresting the
   mountains through midday, and then continuing steadily eastward to
   clear the New England and Middle Atlantic Coasts by the end of the
   period.

   ...Eastern New York/western New England southward into the
   Southeast...
   As a cold front shifts east of the higher terrain of the
   Appalachians during the day, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist
   boundary layer will result in gradual warm-sector destabilization. 
   As a result, expect a gradual increase in convection near and ahead
   of the advancing cold front.  

   With a 60 to 70 kt cyclonic/westerly mid-level jet streak forecast
   to spread across the central Appalachians/New England, shear will
   favor organized/fast-moving storms, and attendant risk for locally
   damaging winds.  Greatest risk will likely extend southward across
   Virginia, and then diminishing with southwestward extent across the
   Southeast where flow aloft will remain markedly weaker.

   Risk should also diminish as storms near the New England and Mid
   Atlantic Coasts, where cooler Atlantic low-level air should maintain
   a stable boundary layer.

   ..Goss.. 05/14/2022

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