SPC AC 040726

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC
   AND SOUTHEAST TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
   and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South
   into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area
   will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast
   Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern
   Georgia.

   ...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...

   A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east
   from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday.
   This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf
   Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad
   warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet
   around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL
   into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This
   surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into
   east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from
   the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift
   north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the
   cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf
   Coast. 

   A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging
   cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much
   of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate
   destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow
   largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear
   convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S.
   likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized
   convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into
   the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL
   during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most
   likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well,
   both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete
   convection should it develop ahead of the line.

   ..Leitman.. 04/04/2022

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