SPC AC 031729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
   ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night centered
   over parts of northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma,
   southwest Arkansas and western Louisiana. Several tornadoes are
   possible over Texas with damaging winds spreading into Arkansas and
   Louisiana overnight. A strong tornado or two may occur from late
   afternoon into early evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough over NM will deepen and pivot northeastward across
   northern TX, OK and KS during the day, then toward the mid MS Valley
   by 12Z Saturday. Coincident with this wave will be a strengthening
   mid and upper-level speed max with strong cooling aloft from the TX
   Panhandle into KS.

   At the surface, a cold front should extend roughly from eastern IA
   into southeast KS and to a low over southwest OK at 12Z Friday, with
   gradual deepening of the surface trough from MO into northeast TX
   through 00Z. Southerly surface winds ahead of the cold front as well
   as a broad zone of 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds will aid
   moisture advection, with 68-72 F dewpoints south of the Red River,
   and low 60s F into southern MO. The end result will be a region of
   favorable instability, shear and lift from eastern TX and OK into
   western AR and LA, with a threat of several tornadoes and damaging
   winds.

   ...TX...OK...AR...LA...
   Scattered storms are expected to be ongoing near and north of a cold
   front from northwest OK into eastern KS, with strong deep-layer
   shear and cold temperatures aloft favoring hail. Given the
   front-parallel nature to the winds aloft, these storms may become
   elevated as the front undercuts the convection. Isolated damaging
   gusts could occur immediately along the boundary.

   To the south, moisture and instability will increase throughout the
   day ahead of the cold front in TX. As pressures fall, boundary-layer
   winds will become increasingly confluent along the I-35 corridor,
   with deepening moist profiles. Forecast soundings indicate that the
   capping inversion will not be very strong. As a result, increasing
   large-scale lift will likely lead to pre-frontal storms after 19-20Z
   over much of northern TX into southeast OK. Strong deep-layer shear
   and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will favor discrete cells, a few of
   which may mature into tornadic supercells as SRH increases to around
   300 m2/s2 by 00Z. Other isolated supercells are possible farther
   southwestward into central TX as the cold front approaches the
   instability axis. Low-level shear will not be as strong farther
   south, but supercells will still be possible, including the threat
   of locally damaging hail.

   During the evening and overnight, the cold front will merge with any
   existing warm sector activity, with a severe squall line forecast.
   Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be possible over eastern TX,
   western LA and AR, and eastern OK. Other severe storms may occur
   from northern AR into southern MO, where shear will be very strong,
   but instability minimal. Sporadic wind damage may occur overnight in
   these areas.

   ..Jewell.. 11/03/2022

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