SPC AC 021723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat will be possible Tuesday mainly from Kentucky across
   Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. A few strong storms are also
   expected from southern Virginia into northern North Carolina.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move quickly across the OH
   Valley and into the Northeast, with midlevel winds increasing to
   40-50 kt with gradual height falls. Meanwhile, low pressure will
   move from IN into OH during the afternoon, and across western NY
   overnight. A front will extend west/southwest from the low, and move
   very slowly across the OH Valley. Ahead of the cold front, a plume
   of 60s F dewpoints will stream northeast out of TN and KY across OH
   and into western PA, contributing to destabilization. 

   East of the Appalachians, a weak warm front will lift north across
   northern NC and into VA, with 60s F dewpoints and heating resulting
   in an unstable air mass. 

   ...OH Valley into western PA...
   Elevated storms are likely Tuesday morning across parts of IN and OH
   in the warm advection regime, but heating will occur behind this
   activity resulting in MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Additional
   storms are likely to form along the front across IN and KY, with
   other storms possibly forming farther east from OH into western PA
   where low-level warm advection will remain into the afternoon.
   Deep-layer shear will favor both hail and wind, but increased SRH
   from eastern OH into PA and WV may yield a few supercells,
   conditional on the surface-based air mass being uncapped near the
   warm front. As a result, have expanded the Slight Risk area
   northeastward into western PA.

   ...Southern VA into northern NC...
   Strong heating will occur as a warm front lifts north, with MUCAPE
   over 1500 J/kg likely by peak heating. Storms may initiate over the
   higher terrain from western VA into NC, and across the warm sector
   over central/northern NC where heating will be strong and the air
   mass uncapped. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary threat as
   cluster of storms propagate eastward into southern VA, but the
   strongest storms may briefly produce marginal hail as well.

   ..Jewell.. 05/02/2022

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