SPC AC 150440

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
   SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered strong storms may pose at least some risk for
   severe wind and hail Saturday from parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower
   Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast.  An isolated severe
   storm or two is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and
   Hill Country vicinity.

   ...Synopsis...
   While the mid-latitude westerlies become more progressive across the
   northern tier of the U.S. during this period, models indicate that a
   mid/upper high will become increasingly prominent across the lower
   latitude eastern Pacific and southern Mexico.  To the north of the
   high, ridging is forecast to build along a broad axis as far north
   as the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley by early
   Saturday.  This ridging appears likely to persist much of Saturday
   into Saturday night, before a short wave impulse emanating from the
   southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific rapidly progresses across the
   southern Great Basin and southern Rockies.

   Farther north, one significant remnant perturbation, emerging from
   the deep mid-level low currently over the Upper Midwest, is forecast
   to dig southeast of the Great Lakes region during the day Saturday,
   before turning eastward toward the northern Atlantic Seaboard.  It
   appears that this will occur as an upstream impulse accelerates
   inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the northern
   Rockies by 12Z Sunday.

   The lead impulse may be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis
   near the New England coast by Saturday evening, with a trailing cold
   front forecast to advance across the northern and middle Atlantic
   coast by late Saturday night.  As it does, models suggest that it
   will merge with a stalled preceding cold front, across the southern
   Atlantic coast into Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern
   Great Plains.  Seasonably moist and potentially unstable
   boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to areas preceding
   the lead surface front, across the Gulf Coast states.  Scattered
   thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, near/northwest
   of the Ark-La-Tex through northern portions of the eastern Gulf
   states, trailing a low amplitude perturbation which may be migrating
   east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, within larger-scale
   cyclonic flow to the south of the main mid-level troughing over the
   Great Lakes.

   ...Ark-La-Tex into Southeast...
   In the wake of the low amplitude wave forecast to cross the southern
   Appalachians through southern Mid Atlantic coast early Saturday,
   mid/upper support for thunderstorm development through much of
   Saturday and Saturday night is unclear.  To the east-northeast of
   the lower latitude ridging, modest, broadly difluent mid/upper flow
   appears likely to prevail, perhaps with one or more digging
   convectively enhanced or generated perturbations.  Models do
   indicate that moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000
   J/kg may develop within the pre-frontal environment with daytime
   heating.  Coupled with modest shear beneath 30+ kt flow around the
   500 mb level, it appears that conditions may become supportive of a
   mix of scattered discrete storms and organizing clusters which may
   become capable of producing at least marginally severe wind and
   hail.  Lower-level wind fields are forecast to remain rather weak,
   and, coupled with the uncertain mid/upper support, this may be the
   primary limiting factor concerning severe weather probabilities for
   this period.

   ...Edwards Plateau/Hill Country into northeast Texas...
   Likely due to weak, or at least uncertain, mid/upper forcing for
   convective development, there is little signal in the various model
   output for an appreciable risk of thunderstorms during this period. 
   However, the environment along the cold front and dryline appears
   likely to become at least conditionally supportive of supercell
   development late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  And the
   initiation of isolated storms, in response to locally enhanced
   convergence and daytime heating weakening inhibition, appears at
   least possible.

   ..Kerr.. 04/15/2022

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