Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...The Woodlands, TX...Fayetteville, AR...
2 %
154,972
16,134,065
Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Corpus Christi, TX...Shreveport, LA...
SPC AC 041621
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....
...SUMMARY...
A threat for tornadoes, severe gusts and large hail exists today and
tonight over parts of central, north and east Texas, southeastern
Oklahoma, southern/western Arkansas, and northern Louisiana.
...OK/TX/AR/LA...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough moving across
NM, with an 80-90 knot mid level jet rotating eastward into west TX.
At the surface, a cold front is sagging southward across western OK
with strong southerly low-level winds aiding moistening in the warm
sector over central/east TX/OK. Widespread low clouds will hinder
daytime heating/destabilization over much of the warm sector today.
However, dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the cold front.
Present indications are that the mid level capping inversion shown
on the 12z FWD raob is weakening rapidly, with a nearly saturated
boundary-layer and little convective inhibition expected throughout
the afternoon. Persistent large-scale forcing ahead of the
approaching trough will lead to scattered fast-moving thunderstorm
development in the warm sector before 19z. Forecast soundings show
very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear profiles for updraft
rotation and tornadoes (including strong tornadoes). The main
forecast question is whether activity will become widespread early,
rapidly weakening the available instability. Even if this occurs, a
transition to bowing structures seems likely with the potential for
widespread damaging winds. For these reasons, have upgraded to MDT
risk for parts of the Arklatex region. Storms will persist well
into the night, tracking across much of LA/AR and into western MS.
...IA/IL/WI...
A surface cold front currently extends from southern WI into eastern
IA and northern MO. A few strong and fast-moving thunderstorms are
affecting areas along/ahead of this front. Given the strong winds
aloft and sufficient CAPE, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur with this activity.
..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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