Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281950
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening, especially across
east central Florida, in association with Hurricane Ian.
...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments, the current forecast remains on
track, with no substantial changes required. Ian has made landfall
just west of the Fort Myers area, and continues moving slowly to the
northeast. The primary tornado potential is now focused in areas
north of Lake Okeechobee, as far north as roughly the Orlando area,
over the next couple of hours, with some northward expansion
possible later into the evening.
..Goss.. 09/28/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/
...East central FL this afternoon/evening...
Major Hurricane Ian is approaching the FL Gulf coast near Fort Myers
and Port Charlotte, and the storm core will continue to move
northeastward across central FL through tonight (see latest NHC
advisories for additional information). Visible satellite imagery
reveals a zone of filtered surface heating along the Atlantic coast,
to the east of the thicker clouds with the hurricane core along the
Gulf coast, as discussion in MD 1841. Also, low-level flow has
veered and hodographs have become less favorable for supercells
across the Keys, while the stronger low-level shear/hodograph
curvature will persist through the afternoon/evening across east
central FL. As new convection forms in the zone of stronger surface
heating, tornadoes will be possible as supercells move northward
into the weak baroclinic zone across central/east central FL, with a
diminished threat farther northwest and deeper into the rain-cooled
air. This baroclinic zone may shift slowly northward along the
Atlantic coast though early tonight, in advance of the hurricane
core.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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