SPC AC 081552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur today from parts of
   southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana into western New
   England.

   ...MI/IN/OH...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough moving across Lake
   Superior into Ontario.  The associated trailing cold front extends
   across northern Lower MI into northern IL.  Considerable cloud cover
   is present ahead of the front, but a combination of dewpoints in the
   70s and broken sunshine will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
   1500-2000 J/kg.  Most 12z model solutions suggest that scattered
   thunderstorms will develop later today as the cold front sags into
   southern Lower MI and northern IN/OH.  Mid level lapse rates are
   weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient steering flow
   will pose some risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the strongest
   cells.

   ...NY/western New England...
   Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies this morning
   from central NY into much of central/southern New England.  This
   area has already begun to show a considerable cu field, and is
   likely to develop into isolated thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. 
   Temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will lead to steep low-level lapse
   rates and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg.  Flow aloft is rather
   weak, but the strongest cells in this area may produce
   gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening.

   ..Hart/Thompson.. 08/08/2022

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