SPC AC 141952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
   parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley
   as well as the Southeast.

   ...Discussion...
   While much of the outlook and prior forecast reasoning remains in
   line with current evolution and expectations, an adjustment to the
   outlook across the Virginia/North Carolina area is being made for
   this update.  It appears that severe/convective potential has
   diminished markedly across this area, warranting removal of SLGT
   risk, and confining the MRGL risk area to southeastern Virginia and
   eastern North Carolina.  

   Elsewhere, only relatively minor line tweaks/adjustments appear
   necessary.

   ..Goss.. 06/14/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/

   ...North Dakota/Northern Minnesota...
   In the wake of early morning storms that have crossed the
   international border, focus turns to the potential for at least some
   severe potential in vicinity of a surface low/warm front-related
   triple point later this afternoon into evening. Steady mid-level
   warming will be occurring into the region the remainder of the day,
   which casts some cap-related uncertainty on the likelihood and
   extent of deep convective development later today. But at the very
   least, a conditional supercell potential will exist mainly across
   northern Minnesota, which could include all hazards, at least on an
   isolated basis. Have made corresponding eastward outlook adjustments
   to account for this potential.

   ...Nebraska/Iowa/southern Minnesota...
   A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central
   Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over Nebraska/Iowa,
   providing a focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development.
   Initial activity will likely be supercellular, but will move
   northward into the cooler boundary layer air and be slightly
   elevated. Nevertheless, large hail and locally damaging winds are
   possible. By mid-evening, storms are expected to be rather
   widespread along the boundary, with an increasing risk of locally
   damaging wind gusts.

   ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
   The remnants of multiple MCSs and resultant MCVs will continue to
   influence the region on the eastern periphery of a Tennessee
   Valley/southern Appalachians-centered upper ridge. The includes an
   upscale-growing cluster of storms across Georgia/central South
   Carolina early this evening, where an increasing surface cold pool
   is present. Modest enhanced mid-level winds (likely MCV aided) will
   contribute to some measure of organization as clusters of storms
   move south-southwestward across the region with damaging wind gusts
   a possibility.

   Additional storms capable of damaging winds/some hail will also
   likely persist/semi-focus this afternoon across parts of West
   Virginia/Virginia into North Carolina, with the westernmost storms
   having access to a greater reservoir of instability.

   ...Upper Ohio River Valley...
   A couple of strong/locally severe elevated storms could develop at
   the very end of the period (roughly 10-12z) with aid of a glancing
   warm advection regime. However, scenario appears too marginal and
   temporally confined and, as such, severe probabilities have not been
   introduced at this time.

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