SPC AC 091959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially
   intense damaging gusts are expected this afternoon and tonight
   across portions of the central and southern Plains.

   ...Discussion...
   Aside from minor line adjustments, no appreciable changes to the
   outlook appear to be necessary at this time.  The current reasoning
   and expectations described in prior outlooks remains consistent with
   both current convective evolution, and expectations for additional
   development this afternoon and evening.  

   Two areas of development continue to be apparent -- one ongoing now
   across the southeastern quarter of Colorado and into northeastern
   New Mexico (which should expand east-southeastward with time), and
   future initiation along the cold front from portions of northern
   Nebraska southwestward into the northeastern Colorado/northwestern
   Kansas vicinity.  This convection should spread south-southeastward
   across Nebraska and Kansas overnight, possibly interacting with the
   aforementioned Colorado/New Mexico convection as it crosses the
   Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into the western and central Oklahoma
   vicinity tonight.  Large hail will be possible with initial storm
   development in both of these areas, with risk transition more toward
   strong/damaging winds as upscale growth occurs into the evening.

   ..Goss.. 06/09/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022/

   ...Central/southern Great Plains...
   After a one-day reprieve, another fairly active severe-weather day
   is expected later this afternoon and tonight, with a probable
   genesis across the central High Plains and near/more so east of the
   Front Range as well as in South Dakota/Nebraska, including a likely
   culmination of one or more southeastward-moving regional MCSs
   tonight across south-central Nebraska/Kansas and western
   Oklahoma/northwest Texas.

   Morning upper-air/surface analysis features an axis of moderate
   low-level (particularly with the lowest 0.5-1 km AGL) moisture
   extending from the middle part of Texas northwestward into the Texas
   Panhandle (12z Amarillo 11.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio) and the central
   High Plains. Somewhat more modest quality is on the northward extent
   into the central High Plains, related to an 8.2C 850 mb dewpoint and
   8.2 g/kg mean mixing ratio as per the 12z North Platte observed
   sounding. This more modest moisture coincides with moderately
   stronger mid/high-level west-northwesterly winds that extend from
   the northern Rockies toward the north-central Plains/Upper Midwest,
   with Interstate 70 as a rough latitudinal delineation of 40+ kt
   mid-level winds (near and to its north). 

   Mid-level speed max and subtle perturbation over eastern Wyoming
   this morning should semi-directly influence downstream areas
   including Nebraska/eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas by
   late afternoon. Multiple corridors of increasing and intensifying
   boundary layer-rooted thunderstorm development are anticipated by
   around mid-afternoon. This includes near a weak triple point
   vicinity across north-central/west-central Nebraska and
   south-central South Dakota, as well as near the surface low/trough
   vicinity and orographically influenced areas of eastern Colorado
   southward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity.

   A combination of vertically veering wind profiles and stronger flow
   aloft (especially with northward extent) in conjunction with steep
   lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support initial supercells across
   much of the aforementioned corridor. Large hail is possible, along
   with a tornado or two particularly during the early evening. Current
   thinking is that storms will grow upscale this evening, with
   multiple south/southeastward-moving MCSs potentially evolving. This
   could include an increased damaging wind potential from
   south-central Nebraska southward into north-central/central Kansas,
   as well as southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest
   Texas/Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma tonight. The potential
   for one or more corridors of Enhanced Risk upgrade may still be
   warranted in subsequent Outlook(s).

   ...Middle Gulf Coast/Southeast States...
   Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
   cold front from Louisiana into the Carolinas. Weak winds aloft will
   limit convective organization, but a few storms will be capable of
   locally damaging wind gusts during the mid/late afternoon through
   early evening hours.

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