SPC AC 041952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

   Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon
   and evening across parts of the central Great Plains to the Texas
   Panhandle. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should
   be the main threats.

   ...20Z Update...
   A small northeastward extension has been made to the Slight Risk
   across eastern NE. Some high-resolution guidance suggests that a
   couple of supercells may develop across this area by late afternoon
   in the vicinity of a stalled surface boundary. Large hail should be
   the main threat if these thunderstorms develop. Otherwise, no major
   changes have been made to the remainder of the Slight Risk across
   the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorms developing over far
   northeastern NM and northern/eastern CO should spread eastward over
   the next several hours. As they encounter greater low-level moisture
   in western NE/KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, gradual strengthening
   should occur. Both large hail and damaging winds still appear
   possible.

   No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the
   Northeast. See Mesoscale Discussion 1028 for more details.

   ..Gleason.. 06/04/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022/

   ...Central Great Plains...
   In the wake of an MCV drifting east over east-central Kansas, 50s to
   low 60s surface dew points persist from the southern High Plains
   into western Kansas. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates
   sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spread east, a swath of moderate
   to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop by
   around peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is
   expected along the lee trough in eastern Colorado and along a
   quasi-stationary front bisecting Nebraska during the late afternoon.
   Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as
   additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee
   trough intersection. 

   While mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, a
   west-northwesterly directional component and strong high-level winds
   will aid in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. This will be adequate
   for a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail.
   Consolidating convective outflows may eventually yield clusters
   progressing southeast through tonight across western/central Kansas
   with an attendant severe wind threat.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central Texas westward
   towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through
   midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27
   corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears
   most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will
   aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree
   of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak
   upper trough passes across it this afternoon, but at least isolated
   late-afternoon development is plausible.

   ...Northern New England...
   Influenced by a modestly unstable air mass ahead of an upstream
   shortwave trough/jet streak, a couple of strong or locally severe
   low-topped storms could occur across the region this afternoon, with
   the possible of localized wind damage and/or some hail. 

   ...Southeast Florida...
   An already limited tornado/wind damage potential associated with
   Potential Tropical Cyclone One (reference NHC) will continue to
   steadily diminish this afternoon as the disturbance continues
   east-northeastward with convection focusing across the nearby
   Atlantic.

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