SPC AC 031950

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND TO THE
   EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible beginning this evening across the
   Florida Keys and continuing overnight into Saturday morning across
   far south Florida. Scattered large hail and strong wind gusts may
   also accompany thunderstorm activity developing off the southern
   Rockies into adjacent high plains late this afternoon and evening.

   ...20Z Update...
   Outlook categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted some,
   mostly to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
   developments and their associated influence on destabilization.  For
   more specific information, please refer to the 1630Z outlook
   appended below and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions.

   ..Kerr.. 06/03/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022/

   ...South Florida...
   A potential tropical cyclone as per the National Hurricane Center
   (see NHC for the latest details) will initially influence the
   Florida Keys and other parts of South Florida into tonight.
   Intensifying low-level winds and increasing hodograph curvature are
   expected to initially overspread the Keys this evening and across
   the south Florida Peninsula late tonight and Saturday morning, all
   while moisture will be increasing. A few tornadoes are plausible
   given this scenario.

   ...Southern High Plains to central/east Texas...
   A readily apparent MCV as per visible satellite/radar imagery
   continues to move slowly east-southeastward across western north
   Texas at midday. Renewed peripheral thunderstorm development and
   intensification is possible this afternoon as downstream
   boundary-layer heating supports modest surface-based
   destabilization. While some severe storms are possible, the overall
   CAPE/shear parameter space appears rather marginal for a more
   organized damaging wind threat.

   Farther west, with a ribbon of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew
   points persisting to the south and north of the overnight MCS track,
   scattered thunderstorm development will occur once again this
   afternoon off the higher terrain from the Sangre de Cristos to the
   Trans-Pecos. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
   broadening plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective
   bulk shear. Several supercells will likely develop, some of which
   may produce golf to tennis ball size hail. An intensifying low-level
   jet this evening could support a multi-hour window for tornado
   potential, but convection will likely grow upscale into a couple
   MCSs from the Panhandles to the Permian Basin with an attendant
   severe wind threat. This threat will diminish overnight, but a
   weakening MCS should linger longest across portions of west-central
   Texas.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Persistent southerly low-level flow will aid in poleward moisture
   advection and increasing MLCAPE at peak heating. Scattered afternoon
   thunderstorms developing east off the Front Range will impinge on
   the instability axis and intensify by late afternoon. Both buoyancy
   and deep-layer shear are expected to be somewhat less favorable
   relative to the southern High Plains. Most CAMs suggest transient
   supercell structures and multicell clusters should tend to dominate,
   which may yield a somewhat lesser intensity threat relative to
   farther south.

   ...Carolinas/Georgia...
   Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk this afternoon for
   anticipations of a somewhat higher probability/semi-focused corridor
   for localized wind damage potential across portions of South
   Carolina and southern/eastern North Carolina. The region will be
   influenced by the southern periphery of moderately strong cyclonic
   flow aloft. Ample heating coincident with mid/upper 60s F surface
   dewpoints will support moderate destabilization and some stronger
   updrafts/downdrafts capable of wind damage.

   ...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
   Within the northern belt of moderate mid-level westerlies occurring
   amid a low-amplitude ridge, deep-layer wind profiles will support a
   conditional threat for a few supercells as afternoon convection
   spreads east off the higher terrain. However, much of the region
   lacks appreciable low-level moisture at present with mid 30s to mid
   40s surface dew points common. While further moistening will occur
   this afternoon, a marginal CAPE/instability combo should support
   only an isolated severe hail/wind threat.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z