SPC AC 241952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the
   ArkLaMiss region this afternoon through tonight. Large to very large
   hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
   all be possible.

   ...20Z Update...
   The Enhanced Risk and corresponding greater severe hail and wind
   probabilities have been expanded westward to include more of west
   TX. Multiple supercells will likely develop this afternoon and early
   evening along a stalled front across this region, with the most
   favored area near the front/dryline intersection. Very large hail
   appears possible with this initial supercell development, and
   perhaps a couple of tornadoes. With time, this activity is expected
   to develop into a squall line with a greater threat for
   severe/damaging winds into central/east TX this evening and tonight.
   Additional convection with both a large hail and damaging wind
   threat should spread eastward from eastern NM across parts of
   northwest/west TX this afternoon and evening. For more information
   on the short-term severe threat across parts of TX, see Mesoscale
   Discussion 900.

   Otherwise, generally minor changes have been made to a couple of
   areas on the periphery of the severe threat based on observational
   trends and short-term guidance.

   ..Gleason.. 05/24/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/

   ...TX...
   Morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southeast CO, with
   a moderately strong mid-level jet extending across NM into west TX. 
   Widespread thunderstorms have been affecting parts of OK and north
   TX this morning, and have resulted in a pronounced outflow boundary
   from near MAF-MWL-DUA. Strong heating and destabilization will occur
   this afternoon to the south of the boundary, yielding MLCAPE values
   of 2500+ J/kg.  This will set the stage for active convection this
   evening over much of TX.

   Storms are expected to develop in the mid-afternoon near the outflow
   boundary/dryline triple-point near SJT.  These storms will likely be
   supercellular with a potential for very large hail and perhaps a
   tornado.  Other storms will form along/north of the outflow boundary
   near the NM/TX border where strong heating is expected.  All of
   these storms will progress eastward through the early evening and
   slowly congeal into a large MCS.  It appears likely that a bowing
   complex will eventually move across much of central TX with a
   potential for scattered damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated
   tornadoes. 

   ...Gulf Coast States...
   A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today from
   southeast TX into much of LA/MS/AL/GA.  12z model guidance suggest
   that several clusters of thunderstorms will move across this region
   this afternoon and evening, beneath modest southwesterly mid level
   winds and relatively cool temperatures aloft.  It appears at this
   time that these storms will be relatively disorganized.  However,
   isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the more
   intense cores through the afternoon and early evening.

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