SPC AC 232001

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO FROM EASTERN GA INTO PARTS OF NC/SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight
   across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe wind
   gusts, and a tornado or two possible.  Isolated to scattered
   damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of
   the Southeast. Thunderstorms with small or marginally severe hail
   may affect North Dakota.

   ...Southeast...
   A 5% tornado area has been added from upstate SC into
   western/central NC, where low-topped supercell development is
   possible within a gradually destabilizing and favorably sheared
   environment. A 15% area has been added for a somewhat larger region
   from eastern GA into central NC, where steep low-level lapse rates
   will support a damaging wind risk as storm clusters move across the
   region. These changes have resulted in a categorical upgrade to
   Slight Risk. In conjunction with these changes, the Marginal Risk
   has been expanded slightly northward into far southern VA. A 5% hail
   area has also been added from southeast GA into parts of NC/SC,
   where somewhat greater buoyancy may support a marginal hail risk.
   See MCD 883 for more information and the previous discussion below
   for more information. 

   ...Eastern NM into TX/southern OK...
   Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected
   late this afternoon into early evening across parts of NM and west
   TX. One or more MCSs may develop tonight and spread eastward into a
   larger portion of central/south TX into southwest OK. The Slight
   Risk has been extended northward across the TX Panhandle based on
   the latest guidance. See the previous discussion below and MCD 884
   for more details. 

   ...North Dakota...
   No changes to the Marginal Risk in this area, see the previous
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Dean.. 05/23/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

   ...Eastern NM/West TX...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the
   Rockies.  Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds are strengthening
   across parts of TX and eastern NM in advance of this trough, helping
   to transport 50s and 60s surface dewpoints northwestward.  This,
   along with pockets of strong afternoon heating, will yield MLCAPE
   values of 1000-2000 J/kg and scattered thunderstorm development. 
   Vertical shear will be favorable for a few supercells capable of
   large hail and damaging winds. This threat will persist through the
   evening as storms track eastward toward western OK.

   ...South TX...
   Clusters of thunderstorms in the Big Bend region and over northern
   Mexico will likely persist in some form through the day, and
   eventually organize into an MCS later this afternoon.  Several 12z
   CAM solutions suggest this activity will move into south TX by early
   evening and track toward the Gulf coast after dark.  If this
   scenario occurs, damaging winds would be possible across this
   corridor.

   ...SC/NC...
   A warm-core low is depicted in radar loops over northwest GA.  A
   band of convection loosely associated with this system is tracking
   northeastward across SC.  Considerable cloud cover ahead of these
   storms will likely limit the coverage/intensity of severe reports.
   Nevertheless, a few strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.  Please
   refer to MCD #879 for further details.

   ...GA/SC...
   Closer to the circulation, visible satellite imagery shows thinning
   clouds over central GA, which may help to warm/destabilize air in
   the southeast quadrant of the low.  Backed surface winds and ample
   moisture, combined with mesoscale lift associated with the low, may
   result in a few organized/supercell storms later today over
   northeast GA or upstate SC.  If these storms can form and persist,
   vertical shear profiles would support some risk of a tornado or two.
    

   ...ND...
   Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
   develop along a weak surface boundary across ND.  Cold temperatures
   aloft and steep lapse rates will promote the risk of small to
   marginally severe hail with the more intense cells.

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