Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...
SLIGHT
184,301
5,314,491
Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...Eau Claire, WI...
MARGINAL
286,425
11,877,297
Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Wichita, KS...Baton Rouge, LA...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
19,709
756,747
Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...Fergus Falls, MN...
2 %
106,639
6,737,862
Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
29,369
903,184
Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...Fergus Falls, MN...
30 %
61,703
5,125,744
Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...
15 %
153,460
5,208,216
Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 %
259,340
11,232,220
Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Wichita, KS...Baton Rouge, LA...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
246,738
10,451,385
Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...
5 %
241,784
7,604,155
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 130034
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging squall line with intense winds will surge northeast across
eastern portions of North Dakota and Minnesota this evening.
Scattered severe, with wind/hail, will also be noted across portions
of the central Plains into western Iowa.
...01z Update...
Convection that initiated over western KS earlier today has
progressed northeast and matured into an intense, damaging squall
line as it surges into southeast ND/western MN. This Derecho has
produced numerous wind gusts in excess of 80mph with several 90+mph
gusts and at least 2 in excess of 100mph. Forward propagation
remains around 68kt suggesting this convection will soon begin to
encounter increasingly stable boundary-layer conditions. Even so,
organized nature of this Derecho and momentum will likely result in
damaging wind gusts protruding a bit more into the cooler boundary
layer than would otherwise be expected. For these reasons have
extended higher wind probabilities a bit farther north across the
upper Red River Valley.
Farther south, organized bow has developed along the MO River from
southeastern SD into western IA. This activity should continue
surging northeast with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and
perhaps some hail. More isolated, mainly hail-producing convection
has developed ahead of the cold front from south-central NE into
northern KS. Additional convection is expected to evolve across the
central Plains as the front surges into this region.
..Darrow.. 05/13/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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