Apr 29, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 29 16:19:51 UTC 2022 (20220429 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220429 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220429 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 19,920 838,976 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hastings, NE...Junction City, KS...
ENHANCED 64,852 4,917,789 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SLIGHT 69,143 3,872,274 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Edmond, OK...
MARGINAL 95,255 4,095,361 Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Columbia, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220429 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 46,216 2,087,462 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...
15 % 13,830 472,253 Topeka, KS...Manhattan, KS...Junction City, KS...Beatrice, NE...
10 % 41,424 1,896,162 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Lawrence, KS...Salina, KS...Grand Island, NE...
5 % 62,037 6,009,497 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Overland Park, KS...
2 % 68,648 2,331,550 Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sioux City, IA...Blue Springs, MO...Bentonville, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220429 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 51,236 3,610,410 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
45 % 19,782 842,012 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hastings, NE...Junction City, KS...
30 % 53,061 3,988,525 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Olathe, KS...
15 % 62,205 4,220,393 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...
5 % 103,036 4,592,203 Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Columbia, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220429 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 91,618 5,320,635 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...
30 % 61,964 2,503,566 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...Salina, KS...
15 % 82,523 6,745,367 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 95,640 4,073,439 Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Columbia, MO...
   SPC AC 291619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
   KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A complex and significant severe weather episode is forecast this
   afternoon into tonight across the central Great Plains vicinity.

   ...Southeast NE/Northeast KS...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted upper trough
   over the central Rockies emerging into the High Plains.  An
   associated 60+ knot mid-level jet will move across KS this
   afternoon, aiding surface cyclogenesis and resulting in a favorable
   setup for severe storm development.  Backed low-level winds to the
   north/east of the surface low and warm front, along with persistent
   moisture convergence and mid-level capping through the early
   afternoon will result in a corridor of boundary layer moisture
   "pooling" roughly along the KS/NE border.  Forecast soundings in
   this corridor show very favorable parameters for tornadic
   supercells, but given the strong forcing that will overspread the
   area, it is uncertain how long supercells can be maintained before
   linear structures develop.  Regardless, significant tornadoes,
   destructive wind gusts, and very large hail are possible with the
   storms that move across southeast NE and far northeast KS this
   afternoon and evening.

   ...Eastern KS along the dryline...
   By late afternoon, the surface dryline is expected to extend from
   the surface low over north-central KS to near ICT.  Temperatures
   west of the dryline will warm to near 90F, while mid 60s dewpoints
   are maintained to the east.  While there is still uncertainty
   whether many storms form along this axis, most of the 12z CAM
   guidance now shows at least isolated supercell development over
   parts of this area.  Strengthening southerly low-level flow/shear by
   early evening would support the potential for strong tornadoes,
   along with very large hail and damaging winds from the most intense
   storms.  By mid-evening, the surface cold front will overtake the
   dryline, leading to widespread thunderstorms capable of large hail
   and damaging winds.  The MDT risk area has been expanded slightly
   southward to include parts of this area, and a 15% tornado risk area
   has been added.

   ...Central OK along the dryline...
   The uncertainty of convective initiation increases south of the
   KS/OK border, but most CAM guidance shows one or more isolated
   supercells forming along the dryline somewhere over OK by late
   afternoon/early evening.  Forecast soundings show an uncapped air
   mass along a somewhat convergent dryline, underscoring the potential
   for development.  Have maintained the SLGT/ENH risk areas across
   this region with a conditional risk of very large hail and tornadoes
   from any supercell that can form on the dryline today.

   ..Hart/Weinman.. 04/29/2022

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