SPC AC 281957

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

   Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS
   OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
   central states arcing into the northeast Great Basin this afternoon
   through tonight. Within this broader regime, greatest confidence for
   severe hail exists across the Nebraska Panhandle during the late
   evening to early overnight.

   ...Discussion...
   No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

   ..Smith.. 04/28/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022/

   A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Plains and
   Midwest states, with several small/weak shortwave troughs traversing
   the ridge from WY/CO into KS/OK/TX.  None of these features are
   likely to result in organized severe storm activity, but several
   areas may see isolated intense convection later today and tonight.

   ...Northeast OK/southeast KS...
   In the wake of morning convection, a surface outflow boundary
   currently extends across central/eastern OK.  Southerly low-level
   winds over this boundary will likely result in re-development of a
   few thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of northeast OK and
   southeast KS.  Isolated severe storms are possible with hail and
   gusty winds possible.

   ...West TX...
   A relatively strong surface dryline is expected to develop this
   afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle southward to the Davis
   Mountains.  Model guidance varies significantly on the odds of
   initiation along the dryline this afternoon, but a few 12z CAMS do
   show strong cells affecting the area between 22-03z.  Large hail and
   damaging winds will be possible with any storms that can form.

   ...Southeast ID into southern WY...
   A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move across UT and affect
   parts of ID/UT this afternoon.  Scattered mostly high-based
   thunderstorms are forecast to develop across this region after 20z,
   with the stronger cells capable of gusty winds and some hail. 
   Limited low-level moisture will suppress a more significant severe
   event.

   ...Western NE...
   Tonight, forcing from the aforementioned shortwave trough will begin
   to impinge on the western edge of greater low-level moisture over
   the NE Panhandle.  This will likely lead to intensifying
   thunderstorms (mainly after 05z) spreading across the SLGT risk
   area.  This scenario is a little more confident than the others, so
   will maintain the SLGT risk category.  Hail and wind are possible as
   the line of storms moves toward central NE overnight.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z