SPC AC 052000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

   Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue into late this
   afternoon into this evening across parts of the Southeast and
   Carolinas. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes
   remain possible across the region, including the risk of a strong
   tornado.

   ...20Z Update...
   The primary change to the outlook is to trim severe probabilities in
   the wake of the extensive QLCS moving eastward across the Southeast.
   Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. Scattered to
   widespread damaging wind gusts remain possible as the QLCS moves
   eastward, along with the potential for several tornadoes with
   embedded circulations and any supercells that can develop ahead of
   the line. 

   A more isolated severe threat is still evident across south TX,
   where isolated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind
   gusts are possible. See MCD 413 for more information regarding this
   threat. Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms are also
   possible this evening into late tonight across parts of the lower MO
   Valley into the Ozarks and northwest OK. See the previous discussion
   below for more details.

   ..Dean.. 04/05/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/

   ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle eastward to GA/SC Coast...
   Forward-propagating portion of the ongoing convective line continues
   to move across southern AL. Some supercellular development has been
   noted ahead of the line, but the lifespan of these cells has been
   limited but persistent low-level stability with northward extent.

   Linear portion of the line has accelerated over the past half hour
   and a pair of supercells preceding it have become better organized.
   This overall evolution, with a forward-propagating line preceded by
   discrete cells, is expected to continue as the system continues
   eastward into the destabilizing air mass downstream. Strong
   low-level flow will continue to support the threat for tornadoes,
   within the discrete warm-sector cells as well as within the
   convective line itself. A few strong tornadoes remain possible.
     
   As the line moves into GA, interaction with the baroclinic zone may
   act as a corridor for greater storm organization/increased severe
   potential within the line itself. This interaction will likely
   stretch into southern SC, and tornado/wind probabilities were
   increased over this region as a result. The gradient of
   surface-based buoyancy over the Carolinas will be quite sharp, with
   low-level stability expected to persist over most of NC.  

   ...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is still
   expected late this afternoon and early evening across the region
   near a southeastward-advancing front. These storms are forecast to
   increase in coverage somewhat as they spread southeastward through
   the evening and early overnight.

   Buoyancy will be modest, especially with northern extent where less
   favorable low-level moisture exists, but somewhat richer moisture
   and increased instability will exist across the Ozark Plateau and
   northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Wind profiles will be conducive for
   some severe storms and a few supercells, but, given the advancing
   cold front, a predominantly linear storm mode is anticipated. Even
   so, isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a brief tornado or
   two are all possible.

   ...South TX...
   Strong heating and modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
   lapse rates will help foster moderate to strong instability across
   portion of south TX this afternoon. Increased low-level convergence
   in the vicinity of a weak surface low coupled with ascent attendant
   to the upper troughing draped across the region should interact with
   this instability to instigate convective initiation. While dry-air
   entrainment will likely temper updraft strength and longevity, a few
   more mature and robust updrafts are possible. High storm bases and
   steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for
   damaging downbursts. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow could
   also contribute to some updraft organization/rotation and resultant
   hail production.

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