SPC AC 311614

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN
   VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today 
   from parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and Hudson
   Valley.

   ...VA into NY...
   Broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today across
   much of the eastern US, with a strong shortwave trough moving across
   the upper OH Valley.  Breaks in the clouds are resulting in pockets
   of heating across this area, which should yield at least marginal
   afternoon CAPE values.  Storms have begun to strengthen along a
   pre-frontal axis over western PA.  Model consensus shows multiple
   corridors of strengthening low-level winds through the day, which
   will help to enhance convergence and lead to more widespread
   intensifying thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.  These fast-moving
   storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. 
   Have added an ENH risk area for this threat.

   ...Southeast...
   A broken line of thunderstorms extends from central GA into the FL
   Panhandle this morning.  The air mass ahead of the line is moist and
   marginally unstable with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
   MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg.  Shear remains very strong across the
   region, which may allow at least isolated cells to pose a damaging
   wind and tornado threat for much of the day as the low-level jet
   migrates northward into the Carolinas.  Please refer to MCD #375 for
   further details.

   ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/31/2022

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