SPC AC 260730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas into the
   Middle Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe
   storms will also be possible from the central and southern
   Appalachian region into a portion of the Tennessee Valley and
   Southeast States.

   ...Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas...

   An intense low-level jet will shift from the southern and central
   Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic during the day in
   association with a progressive northern-stream shortwave trough. A
   warm front will move northward through the Mid Atlantic during the
   day prior to the arrival of a cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s F
   dewpoints will advect through the warm sector contributing to modest
   instability as the surface layer warms with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   possible. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead
   of the cold front as it advances into this region during the late
   afternoon and early evening. This activity will be embedded within
   strong deep layer wind profiles that will support bowing structures
   as well as a few supercells. Damaging wind will be the main threats,
   but a few tornadoes and some hail will also be possible before the
   front moves offshore during the evening.

   ...Ohio through Tennessee Valleys and Southeast States...

   Thunderstorms will be in progress early Sunday along a cold front
   from the OH Valley into a portion of the Southeast States within a
   marginally unstable environment. These storms will be embedded
   within strong deep layer winds and vertical shear supportive of
   embedded organized structures including bowing segments. Some of
   this activity will pose an ongoing threat for isolated damaging wind
   as it advances east during the morning.

   ..Dial.. 03/26/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z