Albuquerque, NM...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Green Bay, WI...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 221723
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from North Dakota eastward across
northern Minnesota, mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary severe
threats.
...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across portions of
AB/SK/MB on Friday, with the southern extension of this trough, and
perhaps an embedded vorticity maximum, expected to move from MT into
portions of the northern Plains and upper MS Valley by Friday night.
The primary surface low will be approaching the western shores of
Hudson Bay by Friday evening, with a trailing cold front extending
into portions of the northern Plains. A surface wave may develop
along the front somewhere across the Dakotas or northwest MN by
afternoon.
Multiple rounds of convection appear possible across the Dakotas and
Minnesota. The first round would be associated with morning
convection that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Sufficient heating
downstream may allow for some reintensification of the morning
convection and perhaps redevelopment of storms along related
outflow/surface boundaries. Another round of storms may develop to
the west by late afternoon along the cold front, assuming that
sufficient recovery can occur in the wake of the overnight/morning
activity. Increasing midlevel flow/deep-layer shear ahead of the
upper trough and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support
potentially organized cells/clusters with both rounds of storms,
with hail and damaging wind expected to be the primary hazards.
As convection consolidates Friday night, some upscale growth is
possible, with thunderstorm clusters and potentially a QLCS
spreading into portions of WI and the U.P of MI, posing a threat of
at least isolated damaging wind into early Saturday morning.
...Southwest...
Monsoonal moisture and a westward-moving upper-level low will
support another day of widespread thunderstorms across portions of
AZ/NM on Friday. Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly flow to the
north of the upper low track will support sufficient effective shear
for weakly organized clusters and perhaps a few rotating cells.
Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit destabilization in some
areas, but isolated instances of hail and strong wind gusts may be
possible with the strongest storms.
..Dean.. 07/22/2021
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