SPC AC 110047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

   Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all
   expected tonight across Arkansas and Missouri, with the greatest
   tornado threat close to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
   Rivers.  The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight
   while spreading eastward into the Tennessee Valley and northeastward
   across the Ohio Valley overnight.

   ...01z Update...

   Water-vapor imagery suggests large-scale forcing is spreading across
   the mid MS Valley, trailing into eastern OK. Convection is expanding
   and deepening ahead of the short wave, especially across MO where
   numerous supercells are now beginning to mature from south of
   UIN-COU-to east of SGF. Additional activity is intensifying along
   the dry line from near JLN-MKO in eastern OK. Earlier thoughts
   regarding severe generally remain and outlook changes are not
   warranted at this time. With very strong shear in place across the
   warm sector, long-lived supercells are expected tonight along with
   tornadoes. Damaging winds and some hail threat also remain. With
   time buoyancy will increase across the lower OH Valley and severe
   threat will increase markedly later this evening into the pre-dawn
   hours.

   ..Darrow.. 12/11/2021

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