SPC AC 101632

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   OK/NORTH TX AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST
   IA/NORTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Kansas,
   southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri, and southwest Iowa, as well
   as central/eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, mainly during the late
   afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
   tornadoes are possible.

   ...OK/TX/AR/LA...
   Wind profiles and the orientation of the front appear favorable for
   supercell development this evening, especially across parts of
   Oklahoma and possibly nearby North Texas. Strong boundary-layer
   heating will occur across western North Texas where surface
   temperatures should warm into the low 80s F. Downstream of this
   low-level warm nose, the greatest buoyancy is expected to be
   centered on south-central Oklahoma where MLCAPE should approach 1500
   J/kg by early evening.

   Increasing convergence along the sharpening front should yield late
   afternoon thunderstorm development in northern Oklahoma, spreading
   south through the evening along the I-35 corridor into north Texas.
   Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates owing to a combination
   of an elevated mixed-layer and cool mid-level temperatures within
   the trough will support a risk for significant severe hail with
   initial discrete supercells. Sufficient hodograph curvature should
   also exist for a tornado threat as well, particularly in the 00-03Z
   time frame. An increasingly linear convective mode is likely to
   evolve across eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas tonight. This
   linear MCS will likely spread southeastward into parts of western
   Arkansas/northwest Louisiana, but weaker surface-based instability
   coupled with stronger forcing for ascent shifting away from the
   region suggests the wind/tornado threat should gradually diminish
   overnight.

   ...Eastern KS/southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA...
   Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for the region, with at
   least isolated severe thunderstorms expected by early/mid-afternoon,
   initially across eastern Kansas and far southeast Nebraska.
   Large-scale ascent tied to the more northern of the shortwave
   impulses will support such an increase in thunderstorms near the
   cold front/surface low. Although cloud cover may tend to linger,
   upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is plausible within the warm sector. A
   few semi-discrete supercells may initially occur, but a relatively
   quick upscale quasi-linear growth is otherwise anticipated as storms
   quickly spread toward northwest Missouri/southwest Iowa.

   ..Guyer/Hart.. 11/10/2021

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