SPC AC 061603

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

   Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S...AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over portions of
   the Northeast U.S. today, and the Upper Midwest tonight.

   ...NY/New England...
   A strong and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across eastern
   Ontario and into New England.  Large-scale forcing for ascent has
   resulted in clusters/lines of showers and thunderstorms across
   eastern NY, which will move across central/northern New England this
   afternoon.  As temperatures warm into the 70s, steepening low-level
   lapse rates may be sufficient for downward transfer of mid-level
   winds, resulting in isolated damaging wind gusts.  Cool temperatures
   aloft may also promote a risk of small hail.  However, limited
   instability/moisture and relatively weak low-level flow suggest the
   overall severe threat will remain marginal.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive shortwave trough over
   southwest Saskatchewan.  This feature will move rapidly eastward and
   help to produce scattered thunderstorms tonight over portions of
   ND/MN into western Lake Superior.  It appears likely that most of
   this activity will be elevated, but one or two cells may become
   sufficiently intense to produce hail or gusty winds.  The primary
   risk of strong storms will be in the 03-09z time frame.

   ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2021

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