Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
33,625
194,263
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
15 %
224,874
38,950,534
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...
5 %
500,277
70,536,189
New York, NY...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
224,645
38,682,481
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...
5 %
443,087
64,846,472
New York, NY...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...
SPC AC 191631
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AS
WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES....
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm wind and isolated large hail are possible from
portions of the central High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A tornado
threat also exists over parts of the central Gulf Coast States to
southwestern Georgia, east of the inland track of Tropical Storm
Claudette.
...AL/GA/FL...
Strong low-mid level wind fields in the southeastern quadrant of TS
Claudette will continue to result in favorable vertical shear
profiles for rotating storms through the afternoon and evening over
parts of AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle. Please refer to WW 285 for
further details.
...OH to Mid Atlantic Region...
Overnight convection has resulted in a large canopy of mid/high
clouds across portions of eastern OH and western/central PA. This
will significantly limit daytime heating and destabilization later
today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT risk area farther south
into parts of OH/WV/MD where stronger heating is expected, and where
CAM guidance in is better agreement regarding thunderstorm
development. A shortwave trough currently over Lower MI will help
to initiate storms across northern OH by mid-afternoon, with storms
tracking southeastward through the evening. Other more isolated
clusters of activity are expected from WV into the Chesapeake Valley
this afternoon. All of these storms will pose some risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.
...Central High Plains...
Strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to
scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon over the foothills and
adjacent plains of central CO and southeast WY. Storms will spread
eastward and intensify by early evening, with several CAM solutions
suggesting congealing cold-pools and the risk of significant
damaging winds across parts of southwest NE and northeast KS.
Considered an upgrade to ENH, but will maintain SLGT due to lack of
a well-defined shortwave trough and relatively weak midlevel winds.
Nevertheless, will re-evaluate the risk category at 20z.
...MO/IL/IN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a large area of ACCAS and isolated
thunderstorms from portions of northeast MO into central IL. Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating in this region will yield
afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg and the potential for intense
thunderstorms. 12z CAMs differ in their convective solutions over
this area, but it is likely that one or more clusters of severe
storms will develop this afternoon and evening. Storms that develop
will pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado. Please refer to MCD #1009 for details on one particular
cluster of ongoing storms.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/19/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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