Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
100,000
1,306,507
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Clovis, NM...Garden City, KS...
SPC AC 161642
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across
portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks.
...Central/Southern Plains...
To the east of an east/southeastward-spreading upper low over the
Desert Southwest, the leading edge of weak height falls will extend
into the central/southern High Plains later today. In vicinity of a
surface low, a front will continue southeastward across the
south-central High Plains through tonight while a
north/south-oriented dryline extends southward into the Trans-pecos
region of west/southwest Texas.
Similar to yesterday, the greatest threat of initial strong/severe
development is expected late this afternoon/early evening from
east-central/southeast Colorado to along the New Mexico/Texas border
vicinity including western portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles. It is also plausible that ample moisture/heating and
convergence in vicinity of the dryline leads to at least isolated
deep convective development late this afternoon across
west/southwest Texas, where deep-layer shear/ample instability could
support a few supercells capable of large hail. The most probable
zone of severe thunderstorm development and organization into this
evening will likely be across the Texas Panhandle and nearby south
Plains/Low Rolling Plains. Initial multicells/supercells capable of
large hail are expected. Over time, storm mergers should lead to a
tendency for storm clustering/MCS development this evening with
damaging wind potential also increasing.
Farther east, a few transient supercells could occur this
afternoon/early evening across central/northern parts of Texas into
Oklahoma in association with an MCV and/or warm conveyor.
...Nevada into northeast Colorado...
As the upper trough moves into the southwest states today, a
consensus of model solutions indicate an arcing band of showers and
thunderstorms will develop from northeast NV into parts of
UT/ID/WY/CO. Very steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient
CAPE suggest a risk of isolated hail and gusty winds for a few hours
this afternoon and early evening.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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