Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
SLIGHT
50,597
1,305,292
Columbia, MO...Jefferson City, MO...Emporia, KS...Hays, KS...Sedalia, MO...
MARGINAL
145,929
5,438,284
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
16,569
482,341
Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Junction City, KS...
2 %
61,861
3,524,520
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Olathe, KS...Independence, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
18,971
2,661,469
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...
15 %
50,207
1,273,635
Columbia, MO...Jefferson City, MO...Emporia, KS...Hays, KS...Sedalia, MO...
5 %
145,979
5,438,420
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
20,747
361,097
Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hays, KS...Junction City, KS...
30 %
11,698
451,722
Topeka, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Junction City, KS...
15 %
53,380
3,086,249
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Olathe, KS...Independence, MO...
5 %
150,079
5,783,841
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...
SPC AC 081932
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST
MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected later this afternoon through
late evening across northern Kansas, and overnight into northwestern
and central Missouri. The initial Kansas storms will pose a large
hail threat, with an increase in the damaging-wind threat by early
tonight. A few tornadoes will also be possible late this evening
into tonight.
...20Z Update..
Recent surface observations sampled upper-50s dewpoints into
south-central KS with one site (WLD) reporting 60. Surface low is
centered about 40 miles west-northwest of HLC in northwest KS, with
a dryline extending southward between GCK and DDC into the northeast
TX Panhandle. The air mass across the central Plains continues to
destabilize with the overall forecast unchanged from what was
outlined in the previous discussion (appended below).
Convective initiation is still anticipated near the surface low and
south along the dryline around 22-23Z, with storms then moving
east-northeastward. Large hail (isolated 2"+) is possible with the
initial, more cellular development. A tornado or two is also
possible, particularly as these storms move eastward into more
supportive low-level moisture. Upscale growth into a more organized
linear system is expected this evening, resulting in a shift to more
of a damaging wind threat.
..Mosier.. 05/08/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021/
...KS this afternoon/evening into MO overnight...
In advance of a midlevel trough now approaching western CO, a lee
cyclone will develop east-southeastward from eastern CO into
southwestern KS through this afternoon, as a dryline sharpens
southward near the western OK border, and a warm front consolidates
near I-70 across KS. Moisture return in the warm sector has been
delayed by a prior frontal intrusion related to a midlevel trough
near the Atlantic coast, with the richest moisture (> 65 F
dewpoints) confined to south of I-20 in east TX as of late morning.
Moisture advection will continue through the day from OK into KS,
but will be offset by vertical mixing, resulting in boundary-layer
dewpoints mainly in the 50s immediately east of the dryline up to
the triple point in KS.
Regional 12z soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
approach 90 F to mix deeply enough to eliminate convective
inhibition, and this only appears probable in a narrow zone along
the dryline to near the triple point by mid-late afternoon.
High-based thunderstorm development is expected near and just
northeast of the triple point in west central KS by 21-23z, and
storms will subsequently move east-northeastward along the surface
warm front. Large hail will be the primary initial threat, and an
isolated tornado may occur in the zone of vertical vorticity and
steep low-level lapse rates along the front. By late evening (near
and after sunset), the potential for a couple of tornadoes may
increase near the warm front in north central KS, as the initial
high-based supercells move far enough eastward to encounter somewhat
richer low-level moisture and low-level shear strengthens.
Upscale growth into clusters is also expected around 03z, and
convection will spread eastward along the warm front into MO through
the overnight hours, supported by warm advection on the nose of a 60
kt low-level jet. The mode transition will result in a shift to
more of a damaging wind threat tonight, though isolated large hail
and a tornado or two may still occur with the stronger embedded
updrafts/circulations.
...Western OK/TX area this afternoon/evening...
The corridor of richer moisture return will remain well east of the
southern Plains dryline through this evening. Deep mixing and a
narrow zone of ascent along the dryline could support isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening; thus, will
maintain the MRGL risk area to reflect the highly-conditional threat
for supercells this evening.
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