Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 041629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
expected through this evening across the Deep South.
...TX to the Southeast...
Complex forecast this afternoon into the evening with several
clusters of ongoing convection from southeast TX to the southern
Appalachians. A moist and moderate to strongly unstable air mass
exists across a broad region ahead of this activity. As noted in 12Z
regional observed soundings, this is where an elevated mixed
layer/plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is established atop
rich boundary layer moisture with surface dew points in the low 70s
that precedes an eastward-moving cold front located near the
ArkLaTex and southeast Texas.
Influenced by the progressive southern stream shortwave trough,
storms should expand in coverage/intensity this afternoon with a
corresponding uptick in wind damage potential expected aside from a
persistent severe hail risk. Strengthening belt of southwesterly
low/mid-tropospheric winds will support organized storms including
growth into multiple quasi-linear MCSs. Widespread damaging winds,
some significant, and brief tornadoes will be possible with the
primary QLCS that is expected to evolve across the Lower MS Valley
into AL.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
With a portion of the elevated mixed-layer present across parts of
the region as sampled by the 12Z GSO/RNK soundings, destabilization
will be pronounced today as nearly full insolation is occurring east
of the Appalachians. An MCV will probably emanate east-northeast out
of an MCS that has weakened over the southern Appalachians. The net
result should be the potential for scattered damaging winds from
strong to isolated severe gusts as multicell clusters spread towards
the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
...Mid-South to Lower OH Valley...
Partial clearing is underway ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough
over the Ozarks. This should contribute to sufficient recovery for a
threat of isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds
downstream of this trough, along the eastward-moving cold front.
..Grams/Moore.. 05/04/2021
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